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MVRV Z-Score

MVRV Z-Score is calculated by subtracting realized capitalization from market capitalization, then dividing the result by the standard deviation of market cap over a trailing window, commonly around two years. The Z-Score expresses how far current market value sits above or below its realized-cost baseline, measured in standard deviations rather than in raw dollars or percentages, which makes readings comparable across different points in Bitcoin's price history.

The metric is used to describe valuation extremes relative to Bitcoin's own history rather than an absolute price level. Low or negative readings mean market cap sits close to or below realized cap — conditions historically associated with deep bear-market phases. Very high readings mean market cap has stretched far above realized cap on a normalized basis; some frameworks treat readings above roughly 7 as historically rare and associated with major cycle tops, though the exact threshold varies by methodology.

Because it is built on realized cap and a rolling standard deviation, the Z-Score reflects what has already happened in the data, not a forecast of what price will do next.