REGIME FOLLOW

v1 · BTC · paper record← All systems
Stance
100% LONG
Since inception
+7.7%
Max drawdown
−5.1%
Paper NAV
107.71
STARTS AT 100
Equity curve · paper NAV
Signal record · append-only
enter2026-08-19 20:00 UTC · 0% → 100% · $68,415
Barometer composite 65/100 crossed above 55 (Neutral / Ranging) — system entered full BTC exposure.
exit2026-07-23 08:00 UTC · 100% → 0% · $65,403
Barometer composite 35/100 crossed below 45 (Risk-Off) — system exited to flat.
enter2026-07-21 12:00 UTC · 0% → 100% · $66,338
Barometer composite 61/100 crossed above 55 (Neutral / Ranging) — system entered full BTC exposure.
exit2026-07-17 06:00 UTC · 100% → 0% · $62,793
Barometer composite 36/100 crossed below 45 (Risk-Off) — system exited to flat.
enter2026-07-14 17:00 UTC · 0% → 100% · $64,665
Barometer composite 62/100 crossed above 55 (Neutral / Ranging) — system entered full BTC exposure.
The rules · deterministic, frozen per version
Rules (v1 — frozen 2026-07-14)
  • Instrument: BTC/USD, long-or-flat. Paper NAV starts at 100.
  • Signal source: the Market Barometer composite (0-100), the same number shown free at /tools/market-barometer.
  • ENTER (exposure 1.0) when the composite crosses ABOVE 55.
  • EXIT (exposure 0) when the composite crosses BELOW 45.
  • Between 45 and 55 the system HOLDS its prior state (hysteresis — no churn in the middle band).
  • Evaluated hourly at snapshot price; fills modeled at price ± 0.15%/side (fee + slippage).
  • Missing data → hold prior state. Never a discretionary override.
Changelog
  • v1 (2026-07-14): initial rules.
Get a push the moment any system changes exposure — the signal, its reason, this page.SIGNAL WATCH →

Paper, not live money · simulated fills with modeled costs · a descriptive record of the system's own rules — never "you should"