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Bowman Fri 18: SCB volatility halved + SVB 94% uninsured — staff knew by March 2022

Same-session pair. Last Update September 18, 2026. Companion Last-Modified Fri, 18 Sep 2026 17:07:15 GMT. Primary https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20260918a.htm. Companion https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20260918b.htm.

Liquid StatePublished ·
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The Eccles Building of the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.
File photograph. Image credit: Farragutful / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 3.0. Display may be cropped.

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman spoke at the Luncheon of the Lord Mayor City of London at Mansion House, London, United Kingdom.

Primary stress-test remarks: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20260918a.htm — The Final Chapter on Modernizing Bank Regulatory Stress Testing. Last Update September 18, 2026. Last-Modified Fri, 18 Sep 2026 13:30:12 GMT (unchanged).

In the coming weeks the Board will consider final revisions to the stress-testing framework. The Enhanced Transparency and Public Accountability rule discloses models, equations, and coefficients, including 2027 model changes. A second rule averages a bank's two most recent annual tests and moves the SCB effective date from October 1 to January 1.

Together those rules reduce SCB volatility by half without materially changing aggregate required capital. Before year-end the Board is expected to finalize risk-based capital reforms and the GSIB surcharge. A third proposal revises the 2027 noninterest-income model. Forward-looking tests would not affect capital requirements.

A plausible recession illustration on SVB would have shown capital below minimum as early as the fourth quarter of 2021.

Same-session companion: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20260918b.htm — Initial Findings from Independent Review of Silicon Valley Bank. Last Update September 18, 2026. Last-Modified Fri, 18 Sep 2026 17:07:15 GMT (quiet page revise after the 13:30 GMT morning print).

Starling Advisory Group, first in a series after the June 2023 call for an independent review of the March 2023 collapse. Seven findings include: unrealized losses exceeded capital, a deposit base that was 94% uninsured, and no discount-window readiness; staff knew or should have known as early as March 2022; no prompt decisive action; not the 2018 tailoring mandate or the former Vice Chair for Supervision, who stepped down in October 2021; a culture of risk aversion; unclear decision rights; and social media did not trigger or accelerate the run.

Charles River Associates found that 96% of the social media chatter regarding the run appeared after SVB's failure was inevitable.

As-of Fri 18 Sep 2026, revised 17:07 GMT. Federal Reserve.

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