Bitcoin vs Gold

Moderate Correlation

90-day performance comparison and rolling 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold (via PAXG — 1 token = 1 troy oz allocated gold on Binance). Updated every 4 hours.

30d CorrelationModerate Correlation
0.51
Rolling 30-day Pearson
BTC Price
$77,258
Binance daily close
Gold Price (PAXG)
$4,605/oz
1 PAXG = 1 troy oz allocated gold
BTC 30d Return
+20.45%
Last 30 daily closes
Gold 30d Return
+13.58%
Last 30 daily closes
History Depth
6.0Y
Daily closes since 2020-08-28
Moderate Correlation. BTC shows partial alignment with gold, with independent price drivers.
Performance — Last 90D (Rebased to 100)
90D BTC +1.7%90 daily closes90D Gold +1.9%
Rolling 30-Day Pearson Correlation
What this measures
Macro hedge alignment
When BTC and gold move together (correlation > 0.5), both are typically responding to the same macro drivers: dollar weakness, inflation expectations, or institutional demand for hard assets. This is the "digital gold" narrative in action.
Risk-on divergence
When correlation is low or negative, Bitcoin is trading as a risk-on asset — moving on speculation, leverage, or crypto-native flows — while gold holds its safe-haven bid or vice versa. These divergences often precede sharp reversals in one or both assets.
Data source
Gold prices use PAXG (PAX Gold) on Binance — each token is backed by one troy oz of allocated physical gold stored in Brink's London vaults and regularly audited. PAXG tracks the London spot gold fix with negligible spread during liquid hours.
Performance by Window — BTC vs Gold at a glance
WindowBTCGold (PAXG)Avg 30d Corr
90D+1.7%+1.9%0.56
1Y-31.9%+37.0%0.32
2Y+20.6%+83.4%0.20
4Y+261.6%+163.9%0.19
MAX (since 2020)+570.2%+132.8%0.16

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bitcoin vs Gold correlation?
The Bitcoin vs Gold correlation measures how closely Bitcoin and gold prices move together over a 30-day rolling window, using Pearson correlation coefficient (−1 to +1). A high positive correlation suggests both assets are being driven by similar macro factors (e.g., dollar weakness, inflation expectations). A low or negative correlation suggests Bitcoin is trading as a risk-on asset, independent of gold.
What is PAXG and why use it as a gold proxy?
PAXG (PAX Gold) is a gold-backed digital token where each token represents one troy ounce of allocated gold stored in Brink's London vaults. It trades on Binance as PAXGUSDT, providing a free, real-time proxy for spot gold prices without requiring a traditional finance data feed. PAXG prices closely track the London spot gold fix.
What does a high positive BTC vs Gold correlation mean?
A correlation above 0.65 suggests Bitcoin and gold are both responding to the same macro drivers — typically dollar weakness, inflation concerns, or risk-off institutional flows seeking hard assets. During these periods, Bitcoin is often being treated as a digital gold hedge by institutional investors.
Is Bitcoin a digital gold substitute?
The relationship between Bitcoin and gold varies over time. During macro uncertainty, correlations often rise as both are treated as inflation/dollar hedges. During risk-on rallies, Bitcoin can decouple sharply upward while gold lags. This tool tracks that dynamic in real time — data only, not investment advice.
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