BTC Market Cycle Phase Gauge
Three price-derived indicators — 200-week SMA ratio, Pi Cycle proximity, and Bull Market Support Band position — combined into a single Cycle Phase Score. Where is Bitcoin in its 4-year cycle right now?
Recovery
Bitcoin has reclaimed long-term support and is building upward momentum. Historically an early bull phase.
Accumulation (0–25)
Recovery (25–50)
Expansion (50–75)
Topping Zone (75–100)
BTC Price
$62,855
200-Week SMA
$62,866
Price / 200WMA
1.000x
Pi Cycle Target
$96,459
Pi Cycle Distance
34.8% below
20-Week SMA
$69,906
Frequently asked questions
What does the Cycle Phase Score measure?
The Cycle Phase Score is a weighted composite of three price-derived indicators: the 200-Week SMA Ratio (45% weight), Bull Market Support Band / 20WMA position (35% weight), and Pi Cycle Proximity (20% weight). It does not predict the future — it describes where Bitcoin is relative to its historical cycle behavior.
What do the four Cycle Phase zones mean?
The 0–100 score maps to four zones: Accumulation (0–25), Recovery (25–50), Expansion (50–75), and Topping Zone (75–100). Historically, BTC below its 200-week SMA has marked generational lows, while extended readings above the 20-week SMA and a converging Pi Cycle indicator have historically coincided with cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021).
What is Pi Cycle Proximity?
Pi Cycle Proximity tracks how close the 350-week SMA × 2 is to the current BTC price. When the two lines converge, it has historically coincided with cycle tops. It contributes 20% weight to the overall Cycle Phase Score.
Is the Cycle Phase Score financial advice?
No. The Cycle Phase Score is based on 3 price-derived indicators historically associated with Bitcoin market phases. It is not financial advice, and past cycle behavior does not guarantee future results.
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View membership options →Computed from Binance public klines (BTCUSDT 1W). Score is a weighted composite of 3 price-derived indicators. Not financial advice.Updated: Thu, 09 Jul 2026 14:29:10 GMT
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