LIQUID STATEBitcoin Halving Cycle Performance Overlay
All 4 BTC halving cycles normalized to halving day = 100 and overlaid on one log-scale chart. Compare how H4 is tracking versus H1, H2, and H3 at each stage of the cycle. Updated every 6 hours via Binance.
At Day 856 of H4, BTC is tracking below the H3 cycle. H3 saw its peak at Day 546 with 788.71% of the halving price (689% gain). Current H4 return from halving: 21.0%.
Past cycles are not predictive of future performance. Historical data informational only.
Cycle Stats at a Glance
| Cycle | Days Elapsed | Return from Halving | Peak Return | Peak Day | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 (2012) | 730 | +2,953% | +6,661% | Day 420 | -57.5% |
| H2 (2016) | 730 | +931% | +2,931% | Day 525 | -68.7% |
| H3 (2020) | 729 | +262% | +689% | Day 546 | -55.5% |
| H4 (2024) | 856 | +21% | +95% | Day 535 | -53.0% |
H1/H2: approximate monthly price data (pre-Binance era). H3/H4: Binance 1D BTCUSDT klines. Return from halving = (current indexed − 100)%. Past performance does not predict future results.
About This Chart
The halving cycle overlay indexes each cycle's BTC price to 100 at the halving day, making it possible to compare cycle trajectories regardless of absolute price. H1 peaked at over 9,000x its halving price; H3 reached ~785x. The log-scale Y-axis lets all four cycles be visible on the same chart.
H4 started on April 19, 2024. The gold line and dot show today's position in the current cycle. Dashed verticals at Day 365 and Day 547 mark common cycle landmarks.
H3 and H4 data from Binance 1D BTCUSDT klines (public API, no key required). H1 and H2 use approximate monthly close prices from public historical records. Updated every 6 hours.
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Data sourced from Binance 1D BTCUSDT klines (public API) for H3/H4. H1/H2 approximate monthly historical prices. All figures informational only — not financial advice. Liquid State · crypto market intelligence.