LIQUID STATE · tools · btc halving cycle overlay

Bitcoin Halving Cycle Performance Overlay

All 4 BTC halving cycles normalized to halving day = 100 and overlaid on one log-scale chart. Compare how H4 is tracking versus H1, H2, and H3 at each stage of the cycle. Updated every 6 hours via Binance.

H4 Day
901
since Apr 19, 2024
H4 Index
134
halving day = 100
H3 Peak
789
Day 546
H4 Return
+34%
from halving
H4 2024 Cycle — Indexed Performance (Halving Day = 100)
Opening chart
Updated every 6h · Binance 1D BTCUSDT klines · Wed, 07 Oct 2026 23:16:51 UTC
Where We Stand

At Day 901 of H4, BTC is tracking below the H3 cycle. H3 saw its peak at Day 546 with 788.71% of the halving price (689% gain). Current H4 return from halving: 34.4%.

Past cycles are not predictive of future performance. Historical data informational only.

Cycle Stats at a Glance

CycleDays ElapsedReturn from HalvingPeak ReturnPeak DayMax Drawdown
H1 (2012)730+2,953%+6,661%Day 420-57.5%
H2 (2016)730+931%+2,931%Day 525-68.7%
H3 (2020)729+262%+689%Day 546-55.5%
H4 (2024)899+34%+95%Day 535-53.0%

H1/H2: approximate monthly price data (pre-Binance era). H3/H4: Binance 1D BTCUSDT klines. Return from halving = (current indexed − 100)%. Past performance does not predict future results.

About This Chart

The halving cycle overlay indexes each cycle's BTC price to 100 at the halving day, making it possible to compare cycle trajectories regardless of absolute price. H1 peaked at over 9,000x its halving price; H3 reached ~785x. The log-scale Y-axis lets all four cycles be visible on the same chart.

H4 started on April 19, 2024. The gold line and dot show today's position in the current cycle. Dashed verticals at Day 365 and Day 547 mark common cycle landmarks.

H3 and H4 data from Binance 1D BTCUSDT klines (public API, no key required). H1 and H2 use approximate monthly close prices from public historical records. Updated every 6 hours.

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Frequently asked questions

What does the BTC halving cycle overlay chart show?
The halving cycle overlay indexes all four Bitcoin halving cycles — H1 (Nov 28, 2012), H2 (Jul 9, 2016), H3 (May 11, 2020), and the ongoing H4 (Apr 19, 2024) — to 100 on each cycle's own halving day, then plots them together on one log-scale chart. A log scale is necessary because the cycles reached very different peak magnitudes: H1 peaked at over 9,000x its halving-day price, H3 reached roughly 785x, and a linear scale would flatten the smaller cycles to invisibility next to the larger ones.
How is each cycle's indexed value calculated, and where does the price data come from?
Each day's indexed value is the day's closing price divided by that cycle's halving-day price, times 100 — so a reading of 200 means the price has doubled since the halving, regardless of the cycle's actual dollar price. H1 and H2 use interpolated monthly BTC price history (those cycles predate reliable daily exchange data); H3 and H4 use live daily closes from Binance. All four series are computed the same way once indexed, making direct cycle-to-cycle comparison possible despite the different underlying data sources.
What do the Day 365 / Day 547 markers and the live H4 cursor represent?
Day 365 and Day 547 are fixed reference lines marking common elapsed-time landmarks across a halving cycle, letting a viewer see where each of the four cycles stood at the same point in its own timeline. The gold cursor marks where the current, still-unfolding H4 cycle sits today relative to the other three — it updates daily as new price data arrives, since H4 has not yet completed.
Does the halving cycle overlay predict what the current cycle will do next?
No. Three completed halving cycles is too small a sample to establish a rule for how a fourth will behave, and each prior cycle reached a very different peak multiple and drawdown. The chart is a historical comparison tool, not a forecast — past cycles are not predictive of future performance, and the tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice.

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Data sourced from Binance 1D BTCUSDT klines (public API) for H3/H4. H1/H2 approximate monthly historical prices. All figures informational only — not financial advice. Liquid State · crypto market intelligence.