LIQUID STATE · Tools

Bitcoin Halving Atlas

Roughly every four years (210,000 blocks) the Bitcoin block reward halves, cutting new supply in half. Below is a live countdown to the fifth halving at block 1,050,000 — plus a systematic look at what each prior supply shock did to price. For educational purposes only.

Era 5 progress (blocks since the 2024 halving)62.1%
Blocks remaining
79,597
to block 1,050,000
Estimated halving
Apr 2028
≈ 553 days
Current block
970,403
live, Blockstream

The halving era atlas

Each prior era ran up to a cycle peak roughly 12–18 months after the halving, then gave back the majority of the move. The magnitude of every advance has shrunk cycle-over-cycle — and so has the depth of the drawdown.

EraHalvingBTC at halvingCycle peakPeak gainMax drawdown
H1Nov 28, 2012$12$1,150+9,483%-83%
H2Jul 9, 2016$650$19,700+2,931%-84%
H3May 11, 2020$8,800$69,000+684%-77%
H4Apr 19, 2024CURRENT$64,000in progress——
H5~Apr 2028 (est.)————
Where are we now?
Check the live Liquid State Market Barometer →
The countdown tells you where we are in the supply cycle. The Barometer's 4-signal regime score tells you what the market is doing right now.
Get the Liquid State Halving Playbook

Plus a heads-up when the halving is 90 days out — and weekly systematic market context from The Brief.

Embed this countdown

Free to embed on any site or newsletter. Updates live — no maintenance required.

<iframe src="https://www.liquidstate.tech/tools/halving-calendar?embed=1" width="100%" height="680" frameborder="0" style="border-radius:8px;" title="Bitcoin Halving Countdown — Liquid State"></iframe>

For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice and not a prediction of future performance. Block timing is an estimate based on the 10-minute target block time and will drift with network hashrate. Historical price figures are approximate, sourced from public market data.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next Bitcoin halving — the fifth — is scheduled for block 1,050,000, which is 210,000 blocks after the fourth halving at block 840,000 (Apr 19, 2024). Off the protocol's 10-minute target block time, that puts the estimate at roughly early-to-mid 2028, but it is not a fixed calendar date: the halving is pinned to a block height, and actual block-mining speed shifts the estimate.
What is a Bitcoin halving?
A Bitcoin halving is the protocol rule that cuts the block reward paid to miners in half every 210,000 blocks. The most recent halving (block 840,000, Apr 19, 2024) cut the reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block; the next one cuts it again to roughly 1.5625 BTC per block. A halving does not change Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply cap — it only slows the rate at which new coins are issued.
Has Bitcoin always rallied after a halving?
In each of the three completed halving eras, Bitcoin's price reached a cycle peak well above its halving-day price — roughly 96x after the first halving, 30x after the second, and 8x after the third — before giving back a majority of the gain (drawdowns of -83%, -84%, and -77% respectively). That is a shrinking three-data-point pattern across three completed cycles, not a rule, and it is not a forecast of what the current or next era does.
Why does the countdown show an estimated date instead of a fixed one?
The halving is defined by a block height (1,050,000), not a calendar date. Bitcoin's block time targets 10 minutes but actual block production varies with network hashrate, so the estimated date is recalculated live from the current block height and average block time rather than fixed in advance.
Join The Feed — $25Join The Reserve
THE BRIEF · FREE

Get free halving cycle analysis in your inbox

Free market reads — plus the Three-Lens Framework the desk runs on every chart. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

🔒 No spam. One-click unsubscribe. Free framework on signup.

XTelegramRedditLinkedIn
All Tools · Rainbow Chart · Cycle Phase · The Brief · Glossary