Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Tracker
Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow current value, updated every 15 minutes: live S2F ratio and PlanB model price versus actual BTC price. For educational purposes only — not financial advice.
S2F by halving era
Each halving doubles the S2F ratio, roughly quadrupling the model's predicted price. The model overshot significantly in H4 — the table shows the divergence between model prediction and the actual cycle peak.
| Era | Date | Subsidy | S2F | Model price | Cycle peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | Nov 2012 | 25 BTC | 11.2 | $533.00 | $1,150 |
| H2 | Jul 2016 | 12.5 BTC | 22.4 | $5,480 | $19,700 |
| H3 | May 2020 | 6.25 BTC | 44.9 | $56,400 | $69,000 |
| H4 | Apr 2024 | 3.125 BTC | 120.7 | $1.57M | in progress |
How Liquid State's S2F Tracker Works
Stock-to-Flow divides Bitcoin's circulating supply (the “stock”) by the annual new issuance rate (the “flow”). After each halving, the flow is cut in half — doubling the S2F ratio and significantly increasing the model's predicted fair value.
The model price uses PlanB's original power-law formula: price = e^(−1.84) × S2F^3.36. Circulating supply is sourced from blockchain.info; price from Binance public API. Data refreshes every 15 minutes.
The Brief covers S2F context, cycle phase, on-chain signals, and regime change alerts — weekly, systematic, no noise.
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For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. The Stock-to-Flow model is a mathematical construct proposed by PlanB. Bitcoin prices are highly volatile and may deviate significantly from any model prediction. Past patterns are not a guarantee of future performance. Circulating supply from blockchain.info; price from Binance public API.
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