What is the Bitcoin power-law model?

The Bitcoin power-law model (Giovanni Santostasi) treats price as a power of time since the genesis block (3 January 2009): price ≈ A × days^n. Liquid State fits that log-log regression on a sourced Binance BTCUSDT daily series and draws a three-line corridor — support, fair-value regression, and resistance — from the residual spread. It is a model of the historical path, not a prophecy.

How is the Liquid State power-law corridor calculated?

We take sourced daily BTC closes, convert each timestamp to days since genesis, and run an ordinary least-squares fit of ln(price) on ln(days). Fair value is the fitted line. Support and resistance sit 1.5 residual standard deviations below and above that line in log space. If the daily series is missing or too short, the corridor is omitted — we do not invent a print.

Is the Bitcoin power law a price prediction?

No. This is a model, not a prophecy. The corridor describes where spot sits versus a long-term log-log fit. Bitcoin’s history is short, the exponent can drift, and past fit is not a guarantee of future path. Use it as one long-term context read alongside other cycle tools. Information, not financial advice.

LIQUID STATE · Tools

Bitcoin Power Law

Santostasi power law — log-log days since genesis versus USD. House fit on sourced Binance daily closes. A model, not a prophecy.

Spot $78,616 · In corridor · -21.7% vs fair · 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC

Support

$49,620

Fair value

$100,362

Resistance

$202,994

Days since genesis

6,450

How the house corridor is fitted

Giovanni Santostasi’s power law says Bitcoin’s dollar price scales with time since the genesis block (3 January 2009): price ≈ A × daysⁿ. Liquid State fits that on sourced Binance BTCUSDT daily closes — ordinary least squares of ln(price) on ln(days). Fair value is the regression. Support and resistance sit 1.5 residual σ below and above it in log space.

This is not the Rainbow Chart (seven calendar-time bands) and not Stock-to-Flow (halving / supply). The x-axis is log days since genesis. The series starts at the Binance listing — we do not invent pre-listing prints. This is a model, not a prophecy.

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This is a model, not a prophecy. For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past fit is not indicative of future results. Bitcoin prices are highly volatile. Data sourced from Binance public API. Days counted from the Bitcoin genesis block, 3 January 2009.

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