Liquid State Realized Volatility Gauge

What do HV30, HV90, and HV180 measure?

They are the annualized standard deviation of an asset’s daily log returns over the trailing 30, 90, and 180 days. HV30 is the short-term reading options traders use to gauge current implied-volatility richness; HV90 smooths out single-event spikes for medium-term context; HV180 is a longer-term volatility baseline for the current market regime.

What does the percentile rank mean?

It shows where today’s HV30 sits relative to the last 365 rolling daily readings — a 10th-percentile reading means realized volatility is lower than roughly 90% of the past year’s readings, while a 90th-percentile reading means it is higher than roughly 90% of them. It is a historical positioning measure, not a prediction of what happens next.

What do the Compressed, Moderate, Elevated, and Extreme risk labels represent?

They translate the current HV30 percentile rank into four plain-language volatility-risk zones: Compressed (0–25th percentile), Moderate (25–60th), Elevated (60–85th), and Extreme (85–100th). The labels describe how unusually calm or turbulent recent price action has been relative to the trailing year — they are a description of recent history, not a signal to act on.

Is realized volatility a trading signal or a forecast?

No. Realized volatility is computed entirely from past price data — it describes how much an asset already moved, not how much it will move next. Compressed volatility has historically preceded sharp moves in either direction, but the gauge itself makes no directional call. Treat it as descriptive market context, not financial advice.