Know your risk before the market does. Enter your mix and see what every major crypto crash since 2018 would have done to it — plus a 1-year Monte Carlo range. Historical data, not a prediction.
Why stress-test a crypto portfolio?
Crypto drawdowns are larger and faster than almost any other asset class. In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell about 77% peak-to-trough and most altcoins fell further. A portfolio that looks fine in a bull market can be cut to a quarter of its value in a cycle most holders have already lived through at least once.
A stress test replaces hope with arithmetic. By applying the actual peak-to-trough moves from 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 to your specific allocation, you see — in dollar terms — what each historical crash would have done to the money you hold today. The Monte Carlo adds a forward-looking view of the range of one-year outcomes given crypto's volatility, without pretending to predict a direction.
The point isn't to scare you out of the market — it's to size positions so that surviving the next drawdown is never in question. Traders who systematically cap risk per position tend to keep drawdowns in the 20–30% range even when the market halves. That framework is what Liquid State's playbooks document.
Historical crash data and a volatility model — not a prediction of future losses, and not financial advice. Scenario figures are approximate peak-to-trough moves from public price history. The Monte Carlo assumes zero expected drift and is illustrative only. Always manage your own risk independently.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Liquid State Crypto Portfolio Stress Test?
The Crypto Portfolio Stress Test applies four historical crypto bear markets to a user-defined BTC, ETH and altcoin allocation, converting each crash's real peak-to-trough price move into a dollar-term loss and recovery-time estimate for that specific mix. It also runs a one-year Monte Carlo simulation to show a probable range of outcomes rather than a single number. The tool is free, requires no account, and is provided for education, not as investment advice.
Which historical crash scenarios does the stress test model?
Four scenarios, each with separate BTC, ETH and altcoin peak-to-trough drawdowns drawn from public price history: the 2018 Bear Market (BTC -84%, ETH -94%, altcoins -90%, roughly a 35-month recovery), the 2020 COVID Crash (BTC -50%, ETH -45%, altcoins -55%, roughly 6 months), the 2022 Bear Market (BTC -77%, ETH -80%, altcoins -75%, roughly 24 months), and the 2024 Correction (BTC -35%, ETH -40%, altcoins -50%, roughly 5 months). These are historical facts about what already happened, not a prediction of the size or timing of the next crash.
How does the Monte Carlo simulation work and what does it assume?
The Monte Carlo runs 2,000 simulated one-year paths using geometric Brownian motion with zero expected drift, so it models volatility risk rather than forecasting a price direction or gain. Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins are simulated with a shared market factor (a correlation of roughly 0.7) so they move together the way crypto assets actually tend to, rather than independently. The output reports the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentile portfolio values after one year — a range of plausible outcomes given historical volatility, not a single predicted number.
Does the stress test predict what crypto will do next?
No. The historical scenarios show what already happened in past crashes, and the Monte Carlo models a statistical range of one-year outcomes assuming zero expected price drift — the combination is not a forecast of future returns, and it is not a buy or sell signal for any asset. The tool exists to size positions so a portfolio can survive a large drawdown, not to predict when one will occur or how large it will be. Provided for education only, not financial advice.
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