LIQUID STATE · tools · trend-following backtest

BTC Trend-Following Strategy Backtest — Live Results

This backtest applies the Donchian(20) breakout logic — the same method taught in the Training Terminal guide series — to Bitcoin. Long when BTC closes above its 20-day high, exit when it closes below its 20-day low. Compared against simple buy-and-hold over the same window.

Past results don't predict future performance. This tool illustrates a systematic methodology.

Strategy vs Buy & Hold
CAGR
-6.6%
Max Drawdown
-31.5%
Total Return
-6.6%
Trades
5
Win Rate
40.0%
vs Buy & Hold
+25.3%

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Reserve members see live Donchian signals updated daily. The "Trading with the Trend" guide covers trend structure, entries, and exits in depth.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a Donchian(20) trend-following backtest?
A Donchian(20) strategy is a systematic, rules-based approach that goes long when price closes above its highest close of the last 20 days, and exits when price closes below its lowest close of the last 20 days. This page runs that exact rule against BTC daily closes and compares the resulting equity curve to simply buying and holding BTC over the same window.
What data does the backtest use?
The backtest is computed from Binance daily (1D) kline data, a public exchange API. Results update as new daily candles close and can be viewed over 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year windows using the timeframe selector above.
What do CAGR, max drawdown, and win rate mean here?
CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is the strategy’s smoothed annualized return over the selected window. Max drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline the equity curve experienced. Win rate is the share of completed trades that closed with a gain. All three are computed directly from the strategy’s trade history over the selected window, not estimated.
Does a backtest predict future returns?
No. This tool illustrates how a specific systematic methodology (Donchian(20) breakout, long-only) would have performed historically against BTC buy-and-hold. Past results do not predict future performance, and the figures shown are informational, not financial advice or a return guarantee.

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Data sourced from Binance 1D klines (public API). Past results don't predict future performance — this tool illustrates a systematic methodology and is informational only, not financial advice. Liquid State · crypto market intelligence.