Longs deeply crowded — funding is paying shorts at an elevated clip. A stretched-positioning extreme; the cells show how price actually resolved.
Net-long positioning with a positive carry cost — the typical state through an uptrend. The cells show the realized follow-through, wins and losses.
Funding near zero — no crowded side. Usually consolidation or the early part of a move.
“% down” = share of occurrences where BTC was lower at that horizon. Medians shown to resist single-outlier skew. Every resolved flip is counted — this is not a filtered highlight reel. Read the flip counts: a two- or three-occurrence regime is an anecdote, not a tendency.
The live Funding Regime Score reads today's crowd positioning across 8 major perps. This is its full history: every time the regime flipped bands, and the realized BTC spot move over the next 7, 14, and 30 days — every occurrence, wins and losses. Observed record, not a prediction.
The funding-regime composite is reconstructed from Binance perpetual funding history using the identical weights, tanh scoring, and band thresholds as the live tool (8 of 8 perps had data over the window), resampled to a daily score.
A flip is a day whose regime band differs from the running regime and holds for at least 2 days (to filter boundary noise), dated at the first day of the new regime. For each flip we take BTC's daily close and its close 7 / 14 / 30 days later; a horizon still in the future is marked pending and excluded from the aggregates.
Window: 2023-01-14 → 2026-08-24 · 34 flips (34 with at least one resolved horizon) · lookback 1,500 days · updated 2026-10-09. All figures computed from public market data — none are estimated or illustrative.
| Date | Flip | BTC | +7d | +14d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $78,993 | -0.5% | +0.2% | +6.8% |
| 2026-08-22 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $77,075 | +1.5% | +3.6% | +12.4% |
| 2024-12-10 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $96,593 | +9.9% | +2.1% | -4.2% |
| 2024-11-07 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $75,858 | +15.1% | +29.6% | +31.6% |
| 2024-06-08 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $69,310 | -4.5% | -7.3% | -18.2% |
| 2024-05-27 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $69,436 | -0.9% | +0.2% | -12.3% |
| 2024-05-24 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $68,550 | -1.5% | +1.2% | -7.8% |
| 2024-05-21 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $70,148 | -2.5% | +0.6% | -7.5% |
| 2024-04-13 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $63,925 | +1.6% | -0.7% | -1.5% |
| 2024-04-08 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $71,620 | -11.5% | -6.7% | -14.6% |
| 2024-04-05 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $67,821 | -1.0% | -5.9% | -5.6% |
| 2024-04-02 | Extreme Long→Long-Heavy | $65,464 | +5.6% | -2.6% | -9.8% |
| 2024-03-31 | Long-Heavy→Extreme Long | $71,280 | -2.7% | -7.9% | -14.9% |
| 2024-03-15 | Extreme Long→Long-Heavy | $69,500 | -8.2% | +0.5% | -5.5% |
| 2024-02-29 | Long-Heavy→Extreme Long | $61,131 | +9.3% | +16.8% | +13.8% |
| 2024-02-15 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $51,880 | -1.1% | +17.8% | +25.9% |
| 2024-01-04 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $44,151 | +5.0% | -6.4% | -2.6% |
| 2023-12-20 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $43,669 | -0.6% | -1.9% | -4.6% |
| 2023-12-13 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $42,869 | +1.9% | +1.3% | -0.2% |
| 2023-11-29 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $37,855 | +15.6% | +13.3% | +11.1% |
| 2023-11-22 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $37,408 | +1.2% | +17.0% | +17.5% |
| 2023-11-20 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $37,449 | -0.6% | +12.1% | +16.6% |
| 2023-11-17 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $36,614 | +3.0% | +5.7% | +13.0% |
| 2023-11-02 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $34,942 | +5.0% | +3.5% | +12.9% |
| 2023-10-28 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $34,081 | +2.9% | +9.0% | +9.3% |
| 2023-10-24 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $33,923 | +2.1% | +4.4% | +9.9% |
| 2023-04-18 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $30,380 | -6.8% | -5.6% | -11.7% |
| 2023-04-16 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $30,305 | -9.0% | -3.5% | -10.8% |
| 2023-03-16 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $24,999 | +13.2% | +12.1% | +21.2% |
| 2023-03-14 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $24,670 | +13.9% | +10.5% | +23.1% |
| 2023-01-25 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $23,061 | +2.9% | -0.4% | +0.5% |
| 2023-01-21 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $22,784 | +1.1% | +2.4% | +9.0% |
| 2023-01-17 | Long-Heavy→Balanced | $21,135 | +7.1% | +9.4% | +11.3% |
| 2023-01-14 | Balanced→Long-Heavy | $20,955 | +8.7% | +9.9% | +3.9% |
This is a record of what has already happened, presented in full — not a signal to act on and not a promise about the future. Funding positioning is context, one input among many. The live regime updates on the Funding Regime Score, and dated calls we publish resolve on the Track Record. Information, not financial advice.
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